Electric vs. autonomous trucks in 2026: what Tesla, Volvo and Aurora are actually running

Tesla's 2,500-truck electric Semi order, Aurora's driverless big rigs in Texas and Volvo's autonomous plans are different things. Here's what's electric, what's driverless, what's still a promise, and what it means for freight brokers, as of September 2026.

Two headlines get blended together in trucking news: electric trucks and driverless trucks. They're different technologies on different timelines, and mixing them up leads to bad planning. A truck can be electric with a driver (the Tesla Semi today), driverless on diesel (Aurora's trucks today), or someday both.

Here's where each actually stands as of late September 2026, with sources.

The Tesla "big contract": electric, not driverless

On September 22, 2026, Catalyst Mobility (formerly CALSTART) and Smart Freight Centre launched ZET SCALE, an order for 2,500 battery-electric Class 8 trucks with Tesla as the primary manufacturer. Kenworth, Volvo and RIDE are secondary manufacturers. The organizers called it the largest electric truck order in U.S. history (Catalyst Mobility).

• The trucks are bought by a financing entity and leased to carriers and shippers. The founding shippers include Microsoft and PepsiCo.
• First deliveries are expected in Q4 2026, with all 2,500 within about 18 months (Transport Topics).
• No dollar value was disclosed, and the announcement doesn't say how many of the 2,500 will be Tesla trucks (FreightWaves).
• None of the announcements mention autonomy. These are electric trucks driven by people.

The Semi has other 2026 orders too: 500 for Einride, announced August 18, 2026 (Electrek), and 50 for IMC Logistics. Serial production at Tesla's Nevada Semi plant began in April 2026, and the plant, designed for 50,000 trucks a year, was formally opened the week of September 22 (Electrek).

On autonomy: on Tesla's July 2026 earnings call, Elon Musk said self-driving for the Semi would likely work around the end of 2026 or early 2027. That's a forward-looking claim. Tesla has missed many earlier self-driving deadlines, and there's no driverless Semi deployment or regulatory filing (Electrek). Plan around the Semi as an electric truck with a driver.

Aurora: the driverless trucks on the road today

Aurora is the clear leader in driverless heavy trucks in the U.S.

Scale is still small. Aurora has roughly 20 to 25 driverless trucks on the road. It targets 200 by the end of 2026, and its long-term goal is more than 30,000 by 2030. Named customers include Uber Freight, Hirschbach, Werner, Schneider and FedEx. Its second-quarter 2026 revenue was about $2 million (Aurora Q2 2026 letter).

Volvo: autonomous trucks, still with safety drivers

Volvo Autonomous Solutions builds the Volvo VNL Autonomous around Aurora's driving system. It hauls commercial freight in Texas on Dallas–Houston, Fort Worth–El Paso and, since May 2026, Dallas–Oklahoma City, with a safety driver on board. At its June 2026 capital markets day, Volvo targeted driverless operation in Texas from the first quarter of 2027 and more than 300 autonomous trucks by the end of 2027 (FreightWaves).

Everyone else, in one line each

• Kodiak: public since September 2025. It had 35 customer-owned driverless trucks at mid-2026, mostly off-highway in the Permian Basin oil field, and targets driverless long-haul by the end of 2026 (Kodiak Q2 2026).
• Bot Auto: hauled what it called the first fully humanless commercial load in April 2026, 231 miles in Texas (FreightWaves).
• Gatik: driverless middle-mile box trucks since January 2026 (FreightWaves).
• Torc / Daimler Truck and PlusAI: both target commercial launch in 2027.
• Gone: Waymo paused trucking in 2023 (TechCrunch), Embark wound down in 2023, and TuSimple left U.S. trucking in 2024 and became an AI animation company (TechCrunch).

Counting generously, there are about 100 driverless commercial trucks in the U.S. today, and only about 20 to 25 of them are big rigs on public interstates. That's our own tally from company reports, not an official count.

The rules are still being written

• Federal: there's still no federal rule written for driverless trucks. The proposed FMCSA rule slated for August 2026 hadn't been published as of early September. The U.S. DOT released a national AV strategy on September 3, 2026, but it's a roadmap, not a rule (U.S. DOT). A federal framework for driverless trucks passed the House Transportation Committee 62–2 in May 2026 but hasn't become law.
• Texas requires state authorization for commercial autonomous operations from May 28, 2026. Arizona has allowed driverless operation since 2018.
• California lifted its ban on heavy-duty autonomous vehicles in April 2026, with phased testing that starts with a safety driver (California DMV). The Teamsters sued in August 2026 (TechCrunch).
• Union-backed bills requiring a human operator have failed or been vetoed in several states, including two vetoes in Colorado.

How fast will this grow?

The most-cited forecast comes from Goldman Sachs. It expects about 25,000 autonomous trucks in the U.S. by 2030, under 1% of the commercial fleet. It also projects an autonomous truck's cost per mile falling from $6.15 in 2025 to $1.89 in 2030, below a human-driven truck (Goldman Sachs). Aurora alone targets more than 30,000 trucks by 2030. Company targets are goals, not forecasts.

The same caution shows up among fleets themselves. In Fleetio's 2026 Fleet Benchmark Report, a survey of more than 600 fleet professionals, only 1.5% said they completely trust AI recommendations without human review. On fuels, 70% had no hybrid or alternative-fuel vehicles, and 57.6% weren't actively considering low- or zero-emission vehicles (Fleetio).

What this means for freight brokers

• Near term, autonomous capacity is a lane product. Driverless trucks run hub to hub on specific interstate corridors, mostly in Texas and the Southwest, in good conditions. For a broker, that's another carrier option on those lanes, not a change to the whole network.
• The first and last mile stays human. Someone still drives the load to the hub and from the hub to the customer, and loads and unloads it (more on that).
• Specialized freight is last. Flatbed loads that need securement and tarps, oversize, hazmat and multi-stop freight need hands and judgment that highway autonomy doesn't replace.
• Electric trucks change the carrier mix on regional lanes near charging, especially in California. They don't take the driver out.

We look at what this means for driver jobs over 1, 5, 10, 15 and 20 years in a separate analysis.

Frequently asked questions

Is the Tesla Semi self-driving?

No. Today's Tesla Semi is a battery-electric truck with a human driver. Elon Musk has said self-driving could work around late 2026 or early 2027, but there's no driverless Semi deployment or regulatory approval.

What was Tesla's big truck contract?

The ZET SCALE program, announced September 22, 2026: up to 2,500 battery-electric Class 8 trucks, with Tesla as the primary manufacturer and Kenworth, Volvo and RIDE as secondary. The shippers include Microsoft and PepsiCo. It's an electric truck program, not an autonomous one.

Are driverless trucks operating in the U.S. right now?

Yes, in small numbers. Aurora runs about 20 to 25 driverless Class 8 trucks on routes in Texas and the Southwest and has passed 500,000 driverless miles. Kodiak runs driverless trucks mostly off-highway, and Gatik runs driverless box trucks in the middle mile.

When will driverless trucks be common?

Not soon. Goldman Sachs expects about 25,000 autonomous trucks by 2030, under 1% of the U.S. commercial fleet. Growth depends on federal rules, state laws, truck makers' production and weather capability.

Does Volvo have driverless trucks?

Volvo's autonomous trucks haul commercial freight in Texas today with a safety driver on board. Volvo targets driverless operation in Texas from early 2027.