Will self-driving trucks replace truck drivers? A 1, 5, 10, 15 and 20-year outlook
How many U.S. truck driving jobs autonomous trucks will affect, and when. It covers today's 2.2 million heavy truck drivers, what the U.S. DOT, UC Berkeley and other studies forecast, which driving goes first, which stays human, and our year-by-year read.
Not soon, and not all of them. The U.S. has about 2.2 million heavy and tractor-trailer truck drivers, and only about one in five to three in ten work long-haul, the segment autonomy targets first. Over the next 1 to 5 years, driverless trucks grow from hundreds to perhaps 25,000 to 30,000 by 2030 (under 1% of the fleet), and the effect shows up as slower long-haul hiring on Sun Belt interstate lanes, not layoffs. Over 10 years, forecasts range from tens of thousands of trucks to an industry-funded 170,000. The U.S. DOT's fastest scenario has layoffs peaking around 11,000 a year. Over 15 to 20 years, somewhere between about 294,000 and 500,000 long-haul jobs are exposed, while local, regional, flatbed, hazmat and specialized driving stay human much longer.
Every truck driver has been asked some version of this question: are robots taking your job? With Aurora running driverless big rigs in Texas and Tesla's Semi in volume production, it's a fair question. The honest answer depends on which kind of driving and which decade you mean.
This article lays out what's known, what the major studies forecast, and our own read at 1, 5, 10, 15 and 20 years. Where a number is a forecast, we say whose. Where it's our estimate, we say so.
Start with who actually drives
| Group | Jobs (2025) | Median pay | Outlook |
|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy and tractor-trailer truck drivers | 2,221,200 | $58,640 | +4% by 2035; about 214,500 openings a year |
| Light truck and delivery drivers | 1,068,500 | $44,860 | +6% by 2035 |
| Hand laborers and material movers (docks, warehouses) | 2,940,300 | $40,240 | — |
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, updated August 2026 (heavy trucks, delivery, material movers).
Most drivers aren't long-haul. Autonomous trucks target long-distance interstate runs first, and that's a minority of driving jobs. The National Academies estimated in 2024 that long-distance truckload employs about one in five heavy truck drivers (NASEM). The U.S. DOT's 2021 study put long-haul at about 29% (U.S. DOT). Local and regional work (pickups, deliveries, drayage, construction, specialized freight) is most of the job market and much harder to automate.
Turnover matters. Large truckload carriers have averaged about 93% annual driver turnover, most of it drivers moving between carriers (NASEM). The U.S. DOT study assumed about 10.5% of drivers leave the occupation each year. That's why most studies expect automation to show up first as fewer new hires, not mass layoffs: attrition absorbs a slow change.
What the major studies say
| Study | What it found |
|---|---|
| U.S. DOT, 2021 (report) | Counted from the year driverless trucks become available: in slow and medium adoption, no layoffs, because attrition covers it. In fast adoption, layoffs peak around year 11 at about 11,000 a year (1.7% of long-haul drivers). By year 30, for-hire trucking employment falls 20–25%, and private fleets 4–5%. About 81% of long-haul work is automatable; hazmat, high-value and cross-border freight keep a human. |
| UC Berkeley Labor Center (Viscelli), 2018 (report) | Up to 294,000 long-haul jobs at risk, mostly truckload. Significant effects unlikely within a decade; the model covers 25 years. The likely model is transfer hubs: driverless trucks between hubs, local drivers at each end. |
| Mohan & Vaishnav, 2022, peer-reviewed (paper) | If autonomy works in all weather nationwide, up to 94% of long-haul driver-hours are affected, which press coverage put at roughly 500,000 jobs (GovTech). If it stays in the Sun Belt, about 10%. |
| Goldman Sachs, 2025 (research) | About 25,000 autonomous trucks by 2030, under 1% of the commercial fleet. |
| Aurora-commissioned study, 2026 (release) | 170,000 driverless trucks by 2035, about 15% of the market. Industry-funded; treat as a high end. |
Where things actually stand, as of September 2026: about 20 to 25 driverless big rigs run on public interstates, nearly all Aurora's, in Texas and the Southwest. Aurora targets 200 by the end of 2026 and more than 30,000 by 2030, which is a company goal (Aurora). Tesla's Semi is electric and still has a human driver (our 2026 status report).
Our year-by-year read
This table is our synthesis of the studies above. It isn't a forecast from any one source. Years count from today, with 2025 as the year commercial driverless trucking began.
| Horizon | Driverless trucks (range) | What happens to driver jobs | Where |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 year (2027) | Hundreds | No measurable effect. BLS still projects growth and about 214,500 openings a year. | Texas and Southwest interstates, oilfields, middle-mile box trucks |
| 5 years (2031) | About 25,000 by 2030 (Goldman's estimate for the whole U.S.) to 30,000+ by 2030 (Aurora's own target); either is under 1% of the fleet | Slower long-haul hiring on Sun Belt lanes, absorbed by attrition. No broad layoffs. | Sun Belt hub-to-hub lanes, no-touch dry van and refrigerated truckload |
| 10 years (2036) | Tens of thousands; up to 170,000 in the industry-funded high case | Long-haul hiring noticeably lower in the South. In the DOT's fast case, layoffs peak around 11,000 a year. | I-10, I-20, I-35, I-40 corridors; long-haul legs between terminals; seasonal spread north |
| 15 years (2041) | Widespread on fair-weather interstates | A large share of new long-haul truckload hiring replaced. Local and regional driving still growing. | Most interstate dry van and refrigerated truckload in good weather |
| 20 years (2046) | Mature | Somewhere between about 294,000 (Berkeley) and 500,000 (all-weather case) long-haul jobs exposed. On the way to the DOT's 30-year figure of 20–25% fewer for-hire trucking jobs. | Long-haul truckload nationwide; human-driven niches remain |
Two things could move this. Faster: a federal rule for driverless trucks (FMCSA's proposed rule was still unpublished as of September 2026), truck makers building autonomous-ready trucks at volume, and reliable snow and ice operation. Slower: state laws requiring a human on board, insurance and liability, and weather.
Which driving jobs stay human longest
- Local and last-mile delivery. Streets, docks, customers and parking are much harder than interstates, and BLS projects delivery driving to grow.
- Flatbed and open-deck. Securing chains, straps and tarps is physical work at the shipper, and it's checked along the way.
- Hazmat, oversize and high-value freight. The DOT study assumes a human stays on board.
- Cross-border freight, customs and all.
- Drayage and first- and last-mile legs to and from autonomous hubs. Those jobs grow as autonomy grows (who loads and unloads a driverless truck).
- Regional work in winter-weather states, until autonomy handles snow and ice reliably.
What drivers can do now
- Favor regional, local and specialized work over pure long-haul truckload, especially in the Sun Belt.
- Add endorsements like hazmat and tanker, and specialized skills like flatbed securement and oversize.
- Watch the new roles. Autonomous terminals hire people to inspect, fuel, couple and move trucks. One Aurora terminal-operator posting in Houston, since removed, paid $30–38 an hour. Inspectors certified by the Commercial Vehicle Safety Alliance take a 40-hour course (HDT).
What freight brokers should expect
For brokers, autonomy first appears as a new kind of carrier on specific lanes. That means driverless capacity between hubs, with a local carrier on each end, and the broker coordinating three legs instead of one. The skills that matter don't change: finding reliable local carriers, handling appointments and accessorials, and booking the first and last mile. SmartLoads is built around those skills, with a person booking every load (why).
Frequently asked questions
Will self-driving trucks replace truck drivers?
Some long-haul driving, over decades, but not most driving jobs. Long-haul is roughly 20–30% of heavy truck driver jobs. Local, regional and specialized driving is much harder to automate, and studies expect human drivers to handle the first and last mile even where highways go driverless.
How many truck driver jobs will be lost to automation?
Studies range from about 294,000 long-haul jobs at risk (UC Berkeley, over roughly 25 years) to up to 94% of long-haul driver-hours, roughly 500,000 jobs, if autonomy works in all weather nationwide (Mohan and Vaishnav, 2022). The U.S. DOT's fastest scenario has layoffs peaking at about 11,000 a year, with most of the change absorbed by attrition.
When will driverless trucks be common?
Not within five years at national scale. Goldman Sachs expects about 25,000 autonomous trucks by 2030, under 1% of the U.S. commercial fleet. The fastest growth will be on Sun Belt interstate lanes.
Is there still a truck driver shortage?
It's disputed. The American Trucking Associations estimated a shortage of up to about 60,000 drivers in 2023, while the National Academies concluded in 2024 that shortage claims don't hold up economically. Either way, BLS projects about 214,500 openings a year for heavy truck drivers.
Which trucking jobs are safest from automation?
Local delivery, drayage, flatbed, hazmat, oversize, cross-border and winter-weather regional driving, plus the first- and last-mile legs to autonomous hubs.